Kodak Was Google Before Google — Then It Vanished. Who’s Next?
In the annals of industrial empires, few fell as completely — or as prophetically — as Kodak.
Once upon a time, Eastman Kodak was photography. With 85% of camera sales and 90% of film, it didn’t just dominate the market — it was the market.
So how did the most iconic consumer brand of the 20th century end up in bankruptcy by 2012?
It’s not just a corporate tragedy. It’s a market parable, rich in historical pattern, investor psychology, and the fatal flaw that kills even the most innovative giants.
Want to understand bubbles, disruption, and why empires fall?
Start with Kodak.
The Myth: Kodak Missed the Digital Revolution
Wrong.
Kodak actually invented the digital camera — in 1975. That’s 20 years before Instagram, 30 before the iPhone.
So what happened?
Kodak saw the future. It just couldn’t bear what that future meant: that its insanely profitable film business was a ticking time bomb.
Instead of disrupting itself, Kodak tried to have it both ways — betting on digital while defending film.
In other words: Kodak didn’t fail from ignorance. It failed from inertia.
Lesson #1: Dominance Breeds Delusion
In every bubble, there’s a moment when the top dog starts to believe its own PR.
Kodak thought its size, patents, and brand loyalty made it bulletproof.
Sound familiar?
In 2007, Nokia had 40% of global phone sales. Then came the iPhone.
In the 1990s, Yahoo was the portal to the internet. Then came Google.
In 1900, railroads were the most powerful industry on Earth — until the car and plane ate their lunch.
Each believed the same lie: “Our past guarantees our future.”
History doesn’t care.
Blurb: Historical manias aren’t just stories—they’re roadmaps
Lesson #2: Innovation Doesn’t Equal Adaptation
Kodak didn’t lack R&D. It launched digital cameras in the ‘90s. It had a massive patent portfolio.
But innovation isn’t enough.
You have to monetize it — and more importantly, be willing to destroy what made you rich in the first place.
That’s the "Innovator’s Dilemma": the idea that the very structure of a successful company makes it blind to disruptive change.
We’ve seen this again and again:
Sears had a catalog business eerily like e-commerce… but couldn’t pivot.
Blockbuster laughed off Netflix.
IBM missed the software wave.
Big banks talk fintech, but still run on code from the Reagan era.
Kodak’s graveyard lesson: It's not what you invent — it's what you're willing to kill.
Lesson #3: Bubbles Begin with Comfort
Bubbles don’t start with hype.
They start with assumptions — lazy, unchallenged assumptions.
Kodak execs assumed margins would stay fat. Customers would stay loyal. That they'd have time.
They didn’t.
Investors made the same mistake in:
1929 — when “stocks could only go up.”
1999 — when analysts gave profits a pass in favor of “eyeballs.”
2021 — when SPACs, NFTs, and meme stocks promised infinite growth and zero risk.
This is the behavioral blind spot: recency bias. We project the recent past indefinitely into the future.
But the future rarely complies.
Lesson #4: Great Companies Still Go to Zero
Buffett tells you to buy great companies and hold them forever.
Kodak was that company.
It had brand power, a wide moat, and dominant market share.
None of it saved Kodak from becoming obsolete.
Because no matter how good the business, if the world changes and the business doesn’t — you're toast.
Today’s giants — Apple, Nvidia, Amazon — all look unstoppable.
So did Kodak in 1996.
Lesson #5: All Moats Leak
Competitive advantage is never permanent.
Kodak’s moat was vertical control over film manufacturing, distribution, and retail. When film died, so did the moat.
Today’s equivalents?
Google rules search — but generative AI is coming fast.
Apple’s walled garden? Starting to show cracks.
Amazon’s scale? Meets rising regulatory heat and margin pressure.
Nvidia’s chip lead? Could shift if the bottleneck moves to software or energy.
Remember Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy: “Gradually, then suddenly.” That’s how moats die, too.
Final Frame: Kodak Wasn’t Dumb — It Was Human
Kodak didn’t lack brains or resources. It lacked flexibility.
It made the same mistake we all do:
We assume the status quo is stable.
But in markets, stasis is the illusion. Change is the norm.
Kodak reminds us that in investing — and in business — survival isn’t about what you built yesterday.
It’s about how fast you're willing to adapt today.
What to Do Now
Stress-test the moats in your portfolio. What would kill this business? What’s the bear case?
Don’t marry your winners. Every giant company is just a collection of bets that may or may not age well.
Study history. The best risk control is remembering what the herd forgets.
Kodak didn’t fail from lack of vision.
It failed from the all-too-human instinct to protect the past at the expense of the future.
Which begs the real question for investors today:
Who’s the next Kodak — and will you see it before the market does?