Nov 10, 2023Liked by Nicholas Vardy-The Global Guru
Great article on Dalio. I think I will buy the book. i have read some of his stuff. He says (in too many words) what any student of history SHOULD already know.
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Nicholas Vardy-The Global Guru
In early middle age I began to read in earnest books on finance. They ranged from non-fiction novel style books (such as "When Genius Failed") to how to books (such as "Unconventional Success"). Some were highly interesting and entertaining, such as Niederhoffer's "Education of a Speculator." A handful were revelatory, such as Taleb's "Black Swan." One I thought was a real dud, probably because of my legal training and experience, Truell and Gurwin's "False Profits" about BCCI, Clark Clifford and Robert Altman. As I read it I kept thinking that the case against them sounded like a lot of guilt by association and would not succeed in criminal court. Despite the book's glowing reviews. And that proved to be the case. Mark Hulbert likes to tell the story about going on Rukeyser's show with Al Frank and Joe Granville, the former a good newsletter producer, the latter a poor newsletter producer. But he suspected that the latter may well have sold more newsletters from that appearance because of his energetic confidence. Something in the human psyche allows bluffers to prosper at least until the house of cards collapses, as some recent high profile disasters have illustrated.
I’d also recommend Fooled By Randomness by Taleb. (If you look hard enough you’ll find my name in The Black Swan as well.) Nassim’s first question about anyone you mention to him is: “Is he a bullshitter?”He’s a big fan of the Princeton philosopher who wrote the book “On Bullshit.”
Nov 9, 2023Liked by Nicholas Vardy-The Global Guru
I finished reading "Fooled by Randomness" at a MoneyShow in Orlando.years ago. When I got "Black Swan" I figured it was more of the same but it struck me as actually being better. (I loved the story about how Taleb asked Benoit Mandelbrot why he spent time on the financial markets when he could be addressing grander issues and he answered that it was because there was so much data. I think most people would rather skip the data). When I was working in a legal bureaucracy there was a fellow who did a tough guy act but was a wimp. He was told in court on one of those rare occasions where he actually tried a case that his performance was subpar. He was so shocked that he passed out. So much for the tough guy act. He continued the act and rose to a director position in the office.
Nov 10, 2023Liked by Nicholas Vardy-The Global Guru
I wonder if Taleb regards Dan Ariely as a BSer. You are no doubt aware of his problems. If not, Wikipedia has a good summary of them. They date back over a decade.
Great article on Dalio. I think I will buy the book. i have read some of his stuff. He says (in too many words) what any student of history SHOULD already know.
In early middle age I began to read in earnest books on finance. They ranged from non-fiction novel style books (such as "When Genius Failed") to how to books (such as "Unconventional Success"). Some were highly interesting and entertaining, such as Niederhoffer's "Education of a Speculator." A handful were revelatory, such as Taleb's "Black Swan." One I thought was a real dud, probably because of my legal training and experience, Truell and Gurwin's "False Profits" about BCCI, Clark Clifford and Robert Altman. As I read it I kept thinking that the case against them sounded like a lot of guilt by association and would not succeed in criminal court. Despite the book's glowing reviews. And that proved to be the case. Mark Hulbert likes to tell the story about going on Rukeyser's show with Al Frank and Joe Granville, the former a good newsletter producer, the latter a poor newsletter producer. But he suspected that the latter may well have sold more newsletters from that appearance because of his energetic confidence. Something in the human psyche allows bluffers to prosper at least until the house of cards collapses, as some recent high profile disasters have illustrated.
I’d also recommend Fooled By Randomness by Taleb. (If you look hard enough you’ll find my name in The Black Swan as well.) Nassim’s first question about anyone you mention to him is: “Is he a bullshitter?”He’s a big fan of the Princeton philosopher who wrote the book “On Bullshit.”
I finished reading "Fooled by Randomness" at a MoneyShow in Orlando.years ago. When I got "Black Swan" I figured it was more of the same but it struck me as actually being better. (I loved the story about how Taleb asked Benoit Mandelbrot why he spent time on the financial markets when he could be addressing grander issues and he answered that it was because there was so much data. I think most people would rather skip the data). When I was working in a legal bureaucracy there was a fellow who did a tough guy act but was a wimp. He was told in court on one of those rare occasions where he actually tried a case that his performance was subpar. He was so shocked that he passed out. So much for the tough guy act. He continued the act and rose to a director position in the office.
I wonder if Taleb regards Dan Ariely as a BSer. You are no doubt aware of his problems. If not, Wikipedia has a good summary of them. They date back over a decade.